WHO'S GONNA WIN THIS WEEKEND

As is with the end of any Formula 1 season, there are a variety of gongs up for grabs.  Some are yet to be won, others have already been decided.


Constructors' Championship
Firstly, yesterdays' grand prix saw the 2010 constructors champions crowned.  This honour went to Red Bull Racing, in only their sixth season in Formula 1.  Austria becomes the sixth nationality of a winning Formula 1 constructor.  Red Bull become the 14th team to take top honours, and also this is the second year in a row which has seen first time champions.  As an engine supplier, Renault have won the championship for the ninth time.  This puts them in third overall, with 1 win behind Ford.


Below is the current standings as of the penultimate race:


1.  Red Bull Racing - Renault              469 Points        WORLD CHAMPIONS
2.  Vodafone McLaren Mercedes          421 Points
3.  Scuderia Ferrari Marlboro               389 Points
4.  Petronas Mercedes Grand Prix        202 Points
5.  Renault F1 Team                         145 Points
6.  Williams Formula 1 - Cosworth      69 Points
7.  Force India - Mercedes                 68 Points
8.  BMW Sauber - Ferrari                   44 Points
9.  Scuderia Toro Rosso - Ferrari        11 Points
 

 DHL Fastest Lap Competition


The next issue to be resolved is the DHL fastest lap competition.  This is awarded to the driver who has gathered most fastest laps over an entire season.  So far this has yet to be won, but only two drivers are in the reckoning.  With one race left, this is how it stands:


1.  Alonso            5 [Bahrain, Britain, Italy, Singapore, Korea];
2.  Hamilton         4 [China, Spain, Belgium, Brazil];
3.  Webber           3 [Australia, Malaysia, Japan];
3.  Vettel             3 [Monaco, Germany, Hungary];
5.  Button            1 [Europe];
5.  Kubica            1 [Canada];
5.  Petrov            1 [Turkey].


*As a side note - did you know, Mercedes have only ever won two constructors championships as an engine supplier.  The last with Brawn GP last year, but before that 1998 with McLaren.  They would have won in 2007 had McLaren not been disqualified for Spy alligations.






Drivers' Championship





The five condenders are now down to four.  From l-r:  Hamilton, Alonso, Webber, Button and Vettel.

 

Now the biggy.  The Formula 1 Driver's World Championship will go down to the wire in this weekend's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.  It will be contested between four drivers:  Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber, Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton.  Of the four drivers, only Fernando Alonso (2) and Lewis Hamilton (1) have won world championships. 

Last year's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix was won by Sebastian Vettel with Mark Webber second and Jenson Button third. 

Interestingly, if the championship was completed using last year's result, Vettel and Webber would be even on points with Alonso 3rd.  Alonso finished last year in 14th place, however he was in a rather inferior Renault then.

Now I shall attempt to list each permutation or possibility of how each driver can win the championship this weekend.

For Fernando Alonso to win the 2010 Championship:

• If Alonso wins, or finishes second, he will become World Champion, regardless of where his opponents finish.
• If Alonso comes third, he must hope that Webber does not win.
• If fourth, Alonso must also hope Webber doesn't take top spot.
• If he finishes fifth, he must hope that Webber does not come in the top two, and Vettel does not win.
• If sixth, he must hope that Webber does not finish on the podium and Vettel does not win.
• If seventh, he must again hope Webber doesn't come in top three, and Vettel does not win.
• If eighth, he must hope that Webber doesn't finish in the top five, and Vettel cannot win.
• If Alonso finishes ninth, he must hope that Webber doesn't finish in the top five, and Vettel in the top two.
• If tenth, he must hope that Webber doesn't come in the top five, Vettel doesn't come first or second.
• If Alonso fails to score, he must hope that Webber doesn't finish in the top five and Vettel in the top two.  He must also hope that Lewis Hamilton can't win.

"The main goal for us is to be on pole on Saturday and then win the race on Sunday.   If we cannot do that, if we are not quick enough, then we will try to be second. With that, the problem is finished."   Fernando Alonso

For Mark Webber to win the 2010 Championship:

• He must win the race and hope that Alonso finishes third or below.
• If he comes second, he must hope that Vettel does not win and Alonso finishes below fifth.
• If he comes third, he must hope that Alonso finishes seventh or below and Vettel does not win.
• If he comes fourth, he must hope that Alonso does not come inside the top nine and Vettel does not win.
• If he comes fifth, he must hope that Alonso does not finish ninth or better.  Vettel must also not come in the top two.
• If he comes sixth or below, Webber cannot mathematically become world champion.

“P1 [in Brazil] would have been nice but it was not possible. But I’m still in the hunt and it’s nice for me to come back after a poor race in Korea.   I’m still in with a big chance, so I’ll go [to Abu Dhabi]  and do my best.”  Mark Webber

For Sebastian Vettel to win the 2010 Championship:

• If he wins, he must hope that Alonso finishes no higher than fifth.
• If he comes second, he must hope that Alonso finishes ninth or below and Webber finishes below fifth.
• If Vettel finishes third or below, he cannot mathematically become world champion.

"In my case, it is pretty straightforward - all I can do is optimise my result, ideally repeat the result we achieved today and then it depends where those two guys are.  For sure, you will have to judge according to the situation. Both of  us, we know how to react. We had some moments we're not very proud of and which we don't want to repeat."  Sebastian Vettel

For Lewis Hamilton to win the 2010 championship.

• He must win the race and hope that Alonso fails to score, Webber fails to finish in the top six and Vettel fails to finish on the podium.
• If Hamilton fails to win the race, he cannot mathematically become world champion.

"We weren't quick enough here and we won't be quick enough in Abu Dhabi.  Realistically, we need a miracle.”  Lewis Hamilton

As it stands:
1.  Fernando Alonso        Ferrari        246 points
2.  Mark Webber            Red Bull     238 points
3.  Sebastian Vettel         Red Bull     231 points
4.  Lewis Hamilton          McLaren    222 points
5.  Jenson Button            McLaren    199 points
6.  Felipe Massa             Ferrari        143 points
7.  Nico Rosberg            Mercedes   130 points
8.  Robert Kubica           Renault       126 points
9.  Michael Schumacher  Mercedes   72 points
10.  Rubens Barrichello   Williams     47 points

Key - 1st - 25 pts, 2nd - 18 pts, 3rd - 15 pts, 4th - 12 pts, 5th - 10 pts, 6th - 8 pts, 7th - 6 pts, 8 - 4 pts, 9 - 2 pts, 10 - 1 pt.


The most interesting championship permutation is if Vettel wins, Webber second, and Alonso fifth.  That would mean that each of the three drivers end the season equal on 256 points.  In such a scenario, the champion would be decided by countback of wins, then seconds, then thirds, and so on.  Vettel and Alonso would be equal on wins, equal on second places, equal on thirds.  Then as Alonso would have 2 fourth placed finishes, and Vettel 3, Vettel would be 2010 world champion.

This is just one of around 1000 possibilities of how the championship will end.

The final race of the season is in Abu Dhabi this weekend.  Qualifying is at 12:15 on Saturday afternoon (BBC1).  The race itself on Sunday afternoon at 12:10. 

More build up to the championship finale will be posted here throughout the week.